A recent post over on WIRED begged the question "OpenAI is poised to become the most valuable startup ever. Should it be?" Leaving aside the obvious Betteridge's Law commentary for a moment, the actual content of this article was utterly baffling.
OpenAI claims it is worth $500 billion. We've heard this a lot of times over the last few months, and everyone seems to sort of have accepted it as the "truth". And yet there's this in the article:
[An anonymous OpenAI investor] argues that the math for investing at the $500 billion valuation is straightforward: Hypothetically, if ChatGPT hits 2 billion users and monetizes at $5 per user per month — "half the rate of things like Google or Facebook" — that's $120 billion in annual revenue.
"That alone would support a trillion-and-a-half dollar company, which is a pretty good return, just thinking about ChatGPT," the investor says.
Except that "math" isn't "straightforward" at all, is it? In fact, I would go so far as to say that it isn't "math" at all, because all of it, all of it, is complete fantasyland nonsense plucked out of the arse of a particularly flatulent ogre, then mindlessly parroted by breathless idiots who think spicy autocorrect is in any way a substitute for the most bare minimum of interpersonal interactions.
Look at it. Two billion users. That's a significant portion of the planet, and it's only very few services — likely Google and Facebook among them — that can count that many user accounts on their books, let alone active users, which is what this nonsense is actually talking about. For context, ChatGPT, at present, continually reports somewhere in the region of 300 million weekly users. That's a lot, sure, but an overwhelming proportion of those are people who are not paying for the service and just using it to burn down a forest or two for a picture of Garfield with tits.
To put it another way, assuming that not only are two billion active users going to magically appear from nowhere, but that every single one of them is going to pay $5 a month to use the lake-boiling plagiarism machine that loses OpenAI money on every paying user already, is patent nonsense.
It is, right?
It is, yes?
I know nothing about economics or business, and I feel like I can see beyond any shadow of a doubt whatsoever that this is an absolute absurdity. Couple that with OpenAI's Sam Altman making incredibly stupid comments like "building a Dyson sphere around the whole solar system" just so we have enough space for all the data centres these two billion imaginary users will need to use their equally imaginary $5 ChatGPT subscriptions, and I'm just left feeling like at some point between COVID and now I've crossed over from a dimension where things make sense into one where they just… don't.
Are we really living in a world where a company's valuation is determined based on completely imaginary figures? Well, I guess it makes sense when they have a completely imaginary product, too. Nearly half a decade into this nonsense and there are still no compelling use cases for the technology for most people — and even the most sweaty AI apologists are obliged to admit that yes, the chatbots get things wrong quite a lot of the time.
Microsoft put CoPilot in Excel! You know, the software you use when you want accurate data analysis and calculations! They added it with the disclaimer that it "might be wrong" and that it "shouldn't be relied on for high-risk situations". Like, you know, pretty much fucking anything you might use Excel for in a business situation.
What are we doing? What are we doing? And WHY?! ARRRRGGGGHHHHHH
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